000
FXUS64 KSHV 200620
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
120 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has drifted
S into upper SE TX and Cntrl LA, after having been stationary for
much of the day along the I-20 corridor of N LA into Lower E TX.
While this front may drift a tad farther S overnight, cool
advection will remain minimal, with temps not expected to fall off
as much as was previously advertised. Meanwhile, weak overrunning
has commenced this evening atop the very shallow air mass in place
(near or less than 1kft deep per the 00Z KSHV raob), with areas of
-RA having developed over the last couple of hours over portions
of NE TX into SW AR. Also beginning to see areas of -RA
developing over NW TX/SW OK, near an area of PVA traversing atop
weak convergence along an inverted H850 trough that extends NE
into Srn and SE OK. As the PVA increases from the W overnight,
should see an increase in convection late, especially over the
Nrn third of the area as the H850 trough bridges E into Srn AR,
with additional development occurring along an inverted H925
trough extending farther S into Lower E TX into N LA. Thus, the
current pop forecast of high chance/likely still looks good late
over these areas, becoming more widespread after daybreak
Saturday once convergence in maximized between the H925-850
troughs.

As was the case last night/this morning, the NBM was much too cool
with overnight temps within this very shallow air mass, with the
warmer HRRR/NAM 2M temps doing a seemingly better job with temps. Thus,
have trended the forecast more in line with these higher
resolution progs, having raised min temps several degrees as a
slightly tighter pressure gradient overnight will keep the winds
up and the air more mixed, not allowing the air mass to completely
saturate. Did not make any changes beyond tonight, as minimal
warming is expected generally along/N of I-20 Saturday as periods
of convection continue.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, IFR setting in with -DZ/BR. Few shwrs
here and there next few hrs w/ increasing coverage and intensity
toward daybreak. Embedded TS too 15-21Z as an upper disturbance in
SW TX rides over the sfc front, now sinking toward I-10. A second
stronger disturbance arrives overnight Saturday with more convection
into early on Sun. Meanwhile, the NE winds extend up to 2kft with
super wet SW flow by 3kft and throughout your climb, due W for
FLs 30-50KT from FL200-FL350. FZL is 135 w/ mid level dry air. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  65  46  72 /  90  20   0   0
MLU  49  63  43  70 /  90  40   0   0
DEQ  45  66  40  70 /  80   0   0   0
TXK  48  65  44  71 /  90  10   0   0
ELD  45  63  40  71 /  90  20   0   0
TYR  49  64  46  72 / 100  10   0   0
GGG  49  64  44  71 / 100  10   0   0
LFK  50  64  45  73 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion