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Current Conditions
Clear
Current temperature, daily max/min °F
Wind
 
Gusting to
Rain (hour)
0.00 in
Wind Chill
Humidity: 91%
Dew Point: 32 °F
Pressure: 1024.8 mb
Solar: 0 W/m2
UV Index: 0.0
Rain Today: 0.00 in
Rain Rate: 0.00 in/hr
Rain Month: 3.88 in
Rain Year: 21.19 in
 
Outlook
Overnight

Overnight: Areas Of Frost
Areas Of Frost
Tuesday

Tuesday: Areas Of Frost then Sunny
Areas Of Frost then Sunny
Lo 34 °FHi 65 °F

000
FXUS64 KSHV 190525
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The center of a 1027mb sfc ridge late this evening was located
across Eastern Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas and while the
pressure gradient in advance of this ridge has continued to
decouple, we continue to see light north to northeast winds attm.
This coupled with very high/thin cirrus across the southern 2/3rds
of our region has resulted in ambient hourly temperatures slightly
higher than our diurnal forecast temperature trend would otherwise
suggest. As we go through the remainder of the night, this surface
ridge should continue to slowly shift south and east into the I-20
Corridor by sunrise in the morning. 00z NAM output suggests that
the thin cirrus will likely hang around at least the southwest
half of our region through the night but the light winds may help
to counter act that with the radiational cooling.

For the forecast update, did not make any changes to forecast min
temperatures but did adjust sky grids slightly to account for the
thin cirrus. Also slowed the diurnal temperatures downward fall
slightly and also added areas of frost to the grids.

Update has been sent...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Surface high pressure building across the region will continue
to advect cold air areawide. A late season light freeze is
expected overnight across southwest Arkansas, northeast Texas,
southeast Oklahoma and parts of north Louisiana. Could see low
temperatures ranging from the upper 20s across McCurtain county to
around the freezing mark of 32 degrees as far south as I-20.

Surface high to shift east on Tuesday allowing for south winds to
return shortly after daybreak becoming southwest during the
afternoon. Southerly flow will allow for temps and moisture to
gradually increase through the end of the short-term period
Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will average in the
mid 60s with overnight lows on Tuesday night in the low to mid
40s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Upper-level ridging to prevail through Wednesday allowing for dry
conditions areawide with temperatures on Wednesday approaching 70
degrees with overnight lows on Wednesday night in the lower 50s.

Pattern shift expected on Thursday as an upper-level low shifts
east and moves across the ArkLaTex. Instability across the region
is forecast to increase ahead of the low as upper-flow becomes
southwest. Additionally, low-level moisture advection ahead of a
surface dryline across east Texas will further aid in
destabilizing the environment enough to support increased
convection beginning Thursday morning and continuing through
Thursday night. The heaviest convection will mainly occur on
Thursday afternoon into the evening hours before convection
diminishes and exits the region to the east through the overnight
period. At this time, no severe weather is expected.

Weak northwest flow in the wake of the departing upper-low will
allow for dry conditions to prevail across the region through the
early part of the weekend. On Sunday, upper-flow to become
southwest, creating an environment conducive for mainly diurnally
driven showers and isolated thunderstorms. Under mostly cloudy
skies, temperatures through the weekend to range from highs in the
70s to lows in the lower 60s. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

For the 19/06Z TAFs, unrestricted VFR conditions will prevail,
with widespread SKC aside from SCT to FEW high cirrus across
portions of east Texas airspace. As high pressure settles in,
winds will become light and variable with some sites nearly calm
by daybreak while areas of frost develop. After 19/12Z winds will
become southerly, transitioning to southwesterly at maximum
sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with a few gusts of up to 15 kts
possible.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  45  71  54 /   0   0   0  30
MLU  63  40  70  51 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  65  39  69  49 /   0   0  10  40
TXK  66  44  69  52 /   0   0   0  40
ELD  63  40  70  49 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  66  48  69  55 /   0   0   0  40
GGG  66  45  70  54 /   0   0   0  40
LFK  67  46  70  53 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ001>006-
     012>014-019>022.

OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-138.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...26

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion