000
FXUS64 KSHV 202053
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CROPPING UP OVER OUR SOUTH MAY WARRANT A SLIGHT POP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND AS MENTIONED EARLIER A
NOWCAST WOULD SUFFICE AND MAY STILL...BUT THE CU FIELD IS GROWING
AND EVEN ROTATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT
MOVED THROUGH KSHV AROUND 18Z. MAY ISSUE NEW ZONES WITH A PRE
PERIOD FOR THE AFTERNOON HERE IN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES ARE SEEN WELL ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY TOO MOVING SE OUT
OF OK AND MAY HELP TO SCRAP UP SOME MOISTURE WITH PEAK HEATING FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. LAPS SHOWS SOME DECENT CAPE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT RIGHT AHEAD OF THAT GOOD BOUNDARY PUSHING ACROSS
THE RED OF OK/TX. KSHV RADAR IS SHOWING SOME BRIEF SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE LONE THUNDERSTORM OVER LOWER TOLEDO BEND IN THE LAST
HOUR...WHICH DISPATCHED AN OUTFLOW OF IT/S OWN TO THE NE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK LOBE OVER E KN IN THE WAKE OF SOME BETTER
NORTHELRY GUSTS OUT OF THE SFC HIGH...1023MB NEAR KHCL IN N KN.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SFC HIGH DRIFTING EAST AND
PERHAPS THE COOL POOL BUILDING/EXPANDING DURING THE EVENING OVER
CEN AND E OK. IF WE CAN ESTABLISH A DECENT LLJ OVERNIGHT WOULD BE
JUST AS GOOD AS THE MODELS SAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN OUR AREA
ON MONDAY..BUT STILL ONLY CHANCE POPS AT MOST AND MEAGER QPF FROM
HPC. THE DRY AIR OVER THE GULF IS SHUNTING EAST AND A MOISTER FLOW
IS TRYING TO DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL BEND DOWN INTO MEXICO.
THE KSHV VAD IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...BUT AT LEAST NOT NW SINCE 18Z
ANYWAY. SOUTHERLY IS BETTER TO MEET THE APPROACHING BOUNDARIES AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THINKING FOR THE START OF THE WEEK/S
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY THIS
TIME EARLY TUESDAY AND WASH OUT. THEN IT/S BACK TO THE LATE SPRING
EARLY SUMMER STATUS QUO OF LATE. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS SUNDAY EVENING IN AN
EARLY SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR MAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SERN OK MAY PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO NE TX AND SW AR BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN AR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
/VIII./

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  88  63  87  65 /  20  30  20  10  10
MLU  64  89  62  85  61 /  10  30  30  10  10
DEQ  61  83  54  84  59 /  30  30  30  10  10
TXK  65  86  59  85  63 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  63  86  57  84  59 /  20  40  30  10  10
TYR  67  88  63  88  66 /  20  30  10  10  10
GGG  65  88  62  88  64 /  10  30  20  10  10
LFK  66  89  66  89  66 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/08

  NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion