484
FXUS64 KSHV 040333
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1033 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
A quick update was made to adjust POPs and Temps based on current
trends. Currently the aforementioned cold front has dropped
southward to near a line from Bullard Texas, to just north of
Shreveport, to near Huttig Arkansas. This has been depicted well
be the HRRR model, so decided to rely heavy on it for this update
for frontal positioning. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms
continue to develop just behind the front, but since its post
frontal, we believe the severe weather threat will be minimal.
The front is expected to retreat back northward again overnight,
with short-term progs lifting it as far north as the I-30
corridor. Not expecting any widespread severe weather tonight, but
an isolated strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out closer to
daybreak, as widespread convection is expected to regenerate
near and north of I-30 corridor. /20/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Another active afternoon of convection has already yielded a few
severe thunderstorm warnings along the Red River straddling Texas
and Oklahoma. These areas are still north of the sfc boundary so
large hail has been the primary concern up to this point given the
elevated nature of these storms and with temperatures only in the
mid 50s. For this reason, Severe Tstm Watch 108 was issued for a
handful of counties including Red River in NE TX, McCurtain in SE
OK along with Sevier and Howard in SW AR to account for the large
hail threat in these areas.
Farther south toward I-30 where the boundary is roughly oriented,
temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s. From there, temperatures
quickly surge into the 70s and mostly the 80s farther SE where an
increasingly expansive warm sector environment resides across the
remainder of the region. Similar to what was observed around this
time yesterday afternoon, weak CIN continues to limit convection
south of the boundary so far this afternoon with our 19Z special
sounding indicating a nearly eroded mid-level cap as compared to
earlier this morning. With that mind, Tornado Watch 109 was also
issued in concert with the Severe Watch with the former taking in
our northern row of LA parishes and nearly all of East & Northeast
TX.
Given that sfc-based CAPE values are pushing 4500 J/kg per our
19Z sounding, storms should develop and mature quite rapidly once
the cap is fully eroded by late afternoon. 0-6km shear is pushing
50 kts with similar values at 0-3km, yielding SRH around 400m2/s2
and possibly higher closer to the boundary. For this reason, a few
strong tornadoes remain possible with any discrete supercells that
may manage to develop. Large hail and damaging wind threats remain
in place as well anywhere in the Tornado Watch area. What seems to
be lacking in this equation is a strong forcing mechanism aloft as
the SW flow regime hasn`t really yielded a significant shortwave
across our region quite yet today. A rather strong impulse has now
rounded the base of the primary trough axis still well to our west
so it`s uncertain whether this feature will have time to make much
difference in terms of increased forcing, thus additional cooling
aloft. Regardless, sfc instability and mid-level lapse rates may
prove to be strong enough to overcome the lack of stronger forcing
aloft. Both Watch products are in effect through 10 PM with the
severe threat diminishing thereafter.
Unfortunately, we rinse and repeat all over again on Friday as the
broader trough axis begins to slowly eject farther east from the
Four Corners region. This should allow for added forcing across
the NW half of the region, which is why SPC opted to upgrade much
of this area to a Moderate Risk for Friday. Another important
factor in this decision is a further northward shift of the sfc
boundary that is expected overnight through the day Friday with
the warm sector effectively encompassing our entire region by this
time tomorrow. All modes will continue to be in play with tornado
and large hail threats especially concerning in this unstable and
highly sheared environment, most notably in the Moderate/Enhanced
Risk areas. The severe threat will persist into the evening hours
on Friday night before gradually trending downward after midnight.
As if that weren`t enough, we still have to contend with the ever
increasing heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat across much of
our northern half. The current Flood Watch remains unchanged for
this forecast update, and we will continue to monitor rain rates
and amounts over the next 12-24 hours to see if further expansion
of the Flood Watch toward the I-20 corridor becomes necessary.
/19/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
By Saturday, we finally get trough axis entering the Southern and
Central Plains with one more round of severe weather and heavy
rainfall to get through before this prolonged period of unsettled
weather is over. The trough will serve to propel the sfc boundary
eastward through the region by Saturday afternoon into the evening
and overnight hours. This will maintain all modes once again with
increasing shear and instability ahead of the front, especially if
the timing pushes a bit later into the afternoon and early evening
during peak heating times. Likewise, the flash flooding threat
will persist as well across at least the northern half of the area
with the Flood Watch in effect through early Sunday morning.
All the convection and severe/flood threats should come to an end
by daybreak on Sunday as the cold front pushes along the MS River.
We will likely be dealing with lingering river flooding impacts
into next week, but much of that will depend on exactly how much
and where the heavy rainfall occurs. Beyond that, a quiet period
of weather is expected for the early to middle part of next week
with below normal temperatures and dry conditions which will be
very welcome in the wake of our marathon of severe weather this
week.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Stubborn boundary remains oriented west to east, and just north
of the I-20 terminals this evening. Overrunning showers prevail
north of the boundary, with a general BKN/OVC sub 5kft
presentation on satellite airspace wide. Gusty S/SW winds remain a
factor for the I-20 terminals and south, while fluid VRB looks to
remain along and just north of the boundary. Expectation is for
the boundary to drift back north again tomorrow, so the stronger
southerlies will return for all terminals. Again, like today, SHRA
will start the day with the return of possible severe mid to late
afternoon and early evening TSRA where the boundary finalizes.
Tomorrow, highest probs look to be within a region from KTYR/KGGG
to KTXK.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 425 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025
Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and early evening
across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas,
and Northwest Louisiana for expected severe thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall.
/15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 88 72 80 / 40 60 70 100
MLU 74 89 73 83 / 20 30 40 100
DEQ 56 79 59 68 / 70 90 100 100
TXK 59 84 67 75 / 60 80 90 100
ELD 61 86 67 79 / 40 70 70 100
TYR 66 83 62 71 / 30 80 100 100
GGG 73 85 66 75 / 30 80 90 100
LFK 73 86 70 79 / 20 40 60 100
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ096-097-108>112.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...53
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion
