704
FXUS64 KSHV 221146
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
546 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025
A very cold start across the region this morning, with temps
currently in the teens areawide. Because of this, a Freeze
Warning remains in place through 9 AM this morning. Under a dry
northwest flow aloft pattern, expect dry conditions and sunny
skies today. Below normal temps will continue, with afternoon
highs only climbing into the mid 40s.
The flow aloft will drive another cold front across the region on
Thursday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier
air. No precip is expected with this boundary, but we could see
some increasing clouds ahead of the front. Temps will remain well
below normal on Thursday, but it will be slightly warmer than
today, with morning lows in the low to mid 20s, and highs ranging
from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025
Dry conditions and sunny skies will remain on Friday as high
pressure settles over the area. Expect more below normal temps,
with morning lows starting off again in the low to mid 20s, and
afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Southerly winds will return by the start of the weekend, as high
pressure slides east of the region. A warming trend will take
place with over the weekend, along with increasing clouds. Rain
chances will return late Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front, and will remain over the area through the first of the
following week, as the front stalls over the region. During this
period, there is some hint that we could see some locally heavy
rainfall, as convection trains along the stalled boundary. WPC has
already put most of our forecast area south of I-30 in a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall.
We should see some drier weather in wake of the front by late
Monday evening,but this will be brief as more active weather is
expected on the heels of this front. Long-term progs have a cut-
off low slowly moving through the Southwest CONUS Tuesday and
Wednesday of next week. Ahead of this system, a southwest flow
aloft pattern will develop over the area. Disturbances will move
along the flow over the area, bringing more rainfall into the
region. Lots of uncertainty remain with this system being almost
a week out, but we may need to watch for the possibility of more
excessive rainfall over the area. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR to remain all of this cycle with
SKC. Arctic high pressure is drifting to the E/SE of our cwa and
will settle over the SE LA snow pack this aftn. Light S winds this
morning will pick up with heating and veer to S/SW for the aftn
with 10-20KT as some gustiness will ensue in the wake of the air
mass. Little change with slow warm up as southerly winds run over
I-10 snow pack, but back to average temps this weekend with clouds
on Saturday and rainfall for all of Sunday and into next midweek.
/24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Measurements of
any wintry precipitation accumulations are appreciated from our
southern zones. Thank you.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 45 27 51 25 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 42 23 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 44 22 47 19 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 45 25 50 23 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 43 23 49 22 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 28 50 26 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 46 25 50 24 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 45 25 51 24 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion
