968
FXUS64 KSHV 062238
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
438 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
Sfc ridge has shifted east of the region this afternoon, and we
are beginning to see SE winds returning areawide. This will allow
for gradual moisture recovery as we move into later this evening
and overnight as dew points climb back into the 40s after midnight
through daybreak. As a result, ambient temperatures will be quite
a bit milder tonight compared to last night as most areas will
bottom out in the mid 40s to lower 50s under a canopy of mid and
high clouds.
The trend of increasing warm and moist air advection will continue
into Friday as a warm front lifts back eastward from the Southern
Plains across the Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, a cold front will
begin to sweep eastward from the TX/OK Panhandle region into the
Southern Plains during the day on Friday with increasing S/SW
winds across our region. Sustained wind speeds will likely range
betweek 10-20 mph with higher gusts upwards of 25-30 mph, mainly
on Friday afternoon. Look for high temperatures to surge well into
the 70s across the entire region with clouds continuing to
increase from the west throughout the day.
By sunset Friday evening, the cold front will be encroaching on
our NW zones as the associated upper-level trough slowly ejects
eastward from the Four-Corners region across the Southern Rockies.
Despite its low amplitude, the trough will result in large scale
ascent across our NW half by Friday night with scattered showers
beginning to developing across our NW half zones after midnight.
Overnight low temperatures will generally range through the 50s to
near 60 degrees with the continuation of southerly flow and thick
cloud cover.
/19/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
Moving into the Saturday, large scale ascent and increased forcing
will promote a chance for strong and severe thunderstorms across
the southern two-thirds of the region. This threat will mainly be
for the threat of large hail as mid-level lapse rates will be
quite steep with cooling aloft and lowering wet-bulb heights with
the advancing cold front. Aside from the hail threat, there does
not appear to be much concern for damaging winds or tornadoes as
the cooler air mass at the sfc overtakes the region ahead of the
strongest forcing aloft with the ejecting upper-level trough.
Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours even
as the marginal severe threat shifts farther east toward the MS
River and begins to diminish across our region. Any lingering
rainfall should begin to wrap up in our eastern zones through
early Sunday before eventually ending areawide sometime Sunday
afternoon. Cooler temperatures will prevail behind the front on
Sunday before a warming trend begins early next and continues
through the end of the long-term period on Wednesday. Look for
high temperatures to rebound into the 70s with sunny skies and
southerly winds returning early next week.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
VFR conditions currently prevailing with mostly cirrus and some
high AC ceilings ovhd but that will be changing as we go into the
predawn hours as low ceilings will return to at least the western
half of our airspace with those lower ceilings rapidly expanding
eastward just after sunrise on Friday. Given the nocturnal
pressure gradient, ceilings will likely begin as low VFR or MVFR
after midnight across our western terminals and cannot rule out
some brief IFR ceilings a couple hours either side of 12z at the
LFK terminal. Should see all MVFR ceilings lifting to low VFR
categories or scattering out all together across most terminals
but especially our western airspace due to mixing. Winds will
begin increasing overnight across mainly our western most
terminals with predawn sustained winds near 12kts with higher
gusts. Those sustained winds will pick up across all terminal
locations during the day Friday with SSE to SSW winds near
12-15kts with gusts upwards of 25kts, mainly across our western
half through the day.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025
Spotter activation is not expected through the end of this week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 50 77 58 67 / 0 10 10 80
MLU 44 75 57 67 / 0 0 0 60
DEQ 45 74 45 57 / 0 10 10 80
TXK 50 75 51 61 / 0 0 10 80
ELD 45 74 51 62 / 0 10 10 70
TYR 54 78 56 65 / 0 0 30 80
GGG 50 77 55 67 / 0 0 20 80
LFK 50 78 61 73 / 0 0 0 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...13
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion
