298
FXUS64 KSHV 020253
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
953 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Light precipitation has just about ended across our region this
evening as the isentropic forcing that resulted in the development
of light showers across our region earlier seems to have ended.
Still going to hang onto slight chance pops however to the south
and east of the I-30 Corridor just in case some light
precipitation tries to develop once again before sunrise.
Likewise, held onto chance pops across our far northwest zones
even though latest HRRR suggests that any strong to severe
convection will likely remain north and west of our northwestern
most zones prior to sunrise. Latest hourly ambient temperatures
are in the ballpark with forecast hourly temps so no temperature
changes are warranted with this evening`s forecast.
No update necessary for the remainder of the evening.
13
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Just sent a quick update to the forecast to account for the
widely scattered showers which have developed across portions of
Central and Northern Louisiana as well as Northeast Texas. This is
in an areas of increased isentropic forcing, something of which
the HRRR has a pretty good handle on. Thinking that this will
dissipate later this evening and should not continue through the
late night hours but will address this possibility with the
routine updated forecast later this evening.
New zone package has been sent...13.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
A warm front continues to surge northward across the region this
afternoon, setting the stage for a prolonged period of unsettled
weather throughout the remainder of this week. This includes both
severe weather and excessive heavy rainfall, increasing the risk
of flash flooding and eventually some river flooding as the week
progresses.
For the short-term forecast period from tonight through tomorrow
night, SW flow aloft will continue to be reinforced in advance of
the first in a series of shortwave disturbances moving through the
flow pattern. This initial shortwave will lift NE generally north
of the I-30 corridor late this evening and overnight with a very
low-end severe potential just encroaching into our extreme NE TX
zones along the Red River and adjacent areas in McCurtain County
in SE OK. This is mainly to account for threat of isolated large
hail and damaging wind gusts that many accompany any storms that
develop and track eastward along the Middle Red River Valley. For
the vast majority of the region outside of the aforementioned
areas, expect a quiet night with well above normal temperatures
given the increasing southerly winds. Speaking of those winds,
they will become stronger and gusty overnight but should remain
below advisory thresholds.
Moving ahead to Wednesday, that initial shortwave will continue to
pivot NE into the Mid-MS Valley while a cold front slowly advances
across the Central and Southern Plains. This front should remain
west of our entire region through most of the day, maintaining a
vast warm sector across much of the South Central U.S. Significant
destabilization is expected ahead of the front with afternoon high
temperatures expected to range from the upper 70s to mid 80s while
dew points hover in the mid to upper 60s. This will push sfc-based
CAPE into the 2500-3000 J/kg range during peak heating times with
severe thunderstorms potentially developing by early/mid afternoon
across NW zones and gradually expand SE through late afternoon and
early evening. This is illustrated in the updated Day 2 convective
outlook from SPC with a rather expansive Enhanced Risk highlighted
across roughly the NW two-thirds of our region and tapering back
to Slight or Marginal Risk farther SE where forcing and influence
from the sfc boundary won`t be as pronounced. This will be an all
modes severe threat, including the potential for very large hail
and a few higher end tornadoes (EF2+) for much of the Enhanced
Risk area.
The severe threat should begin to diminish with time by late in
the evening and overnight as heating is lost and the boundary
becomes stalled invof or just north of I-30. This will prove to be
rather impactful in terms of the forecast going forward into the
long-term period as the daily threat of severe weather and heavy
rainfall loom further into the mid to late week timeframe.
/19/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
As mentioned, the stalled sfc boundary will take up residence near
the I-30 corridor and effectively park itself there for the
remainder of this week and possibly early into the weekend. The
end result will be a period of very unsettled weather with daily
severe weather probabilities along with a significant increase in
the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially for
areas along and north of I-30. For purposes of the Flood Watch,
did not make any changes to the earlier issuance of the Watch but
it is certainly possible that some additional areas in NE TX and
SW AR could be added based on the latest model trends which
indicate as much as 3-6 inches of rainfall down to the AR/LA
border with higher amounts farther north in the current Watch
area. Keep in mind this will be spread out over several days with
multiple rounds of showers and storms expected through at least
Saturday night or early Sunday.
Beyond the Saturday night and early Sunday timeframe, the front
will finally gain some much needed upper-level support and be
ushered eastward by late in the weekend with much cooler and drier
weather expected by early next week. In fact, temperatures should
run well below normal by Sunday night and especially for early
next week in the post-frontal air mass in place. This will give
us a much needed period to dry out after several days of rainfall.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
For the 02/00z TAF update...Radar imagery is showing some light
showers across central Louisiana this evening. Shouldn`t see any
impact to any of our terminals at this time but will continue to
monitor it. Satellite imagery is showing some lower clouds across
the region this evening as well. This has been bringing some MVFR
conditions to some terminals at times and I am expecting this
trend to continue into the rest of the evening and some of the
overnight hours before improving around 02/18z. Winds have
remained gusty across the region this evening and this also is
expected to continue into the overnight hours. /33/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025
Spotter activation should not be needed through tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 71 85 73 87 / 20 60 60 70
MLU 71 86 73 88 / 20 30 50 40
DEQ 64 78 62 75 / 50 80 90 100
TXK 70 82 68 82 / 20 90 90 100
ELD 67 84 67 83 / 20 80 80 80
TYR 71 81 71 84 / 20 60 60 70
GGG 69 82 70 85 / 20 60 60 80
LFK 70 84 73 88 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Sunday morning for
ARZ050-051-059>061.
LA...None.
OK...Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Sunday morning for
OKZ077.
TX...Flood Watch from late Wednesday night through Sunday morning for
TXZ096-097.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...33
NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion
